If you think 2007 was miserable for us down here in Houston, well, you’re right. It was terrible, and I now have the utmost sympathy for Pirates fans, as they have been through this sort of torture for years upon years… well, sort of. Injury-induced losing is a bit different from ownership-induced losing. But hey, from the looks of things we might have both soon!

Notable lowlights from the Juice Box:

  • June 14th: Adam Everett, arguably the best defensive shortstop in the game today, collides with left fielder Carlos Lee while fielding a fly ball. Everett breaks his leg, and is out for three months. The Astros, already mired in a 27-38 mess, lose the game. Everett plays just three more games in 2007.
  • July 22nd: Hunter Pence, an unexpected bright spot on a struggling Houston club and a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, chips a bone in his wrist and misses four weeks.
  • July 29th: Jason Jennings, #2 in the rotation, gives up 11 runs in the top of the first inning against the Padres. Not surprisingly, the Astros go on to lose. Jennings finishes the season with a 6.45 ERA after his fastball struggles to hit 90 on the gun and his sinker… well… fails to sink. Not exactly what Houston had in mind when they traded Willy Taveras for this guy.
  • July 31st: Morgan Ensberg, a fine third baseman who’s been in a bit of a slump, is traded to San Diego. This comes on the heels of a nonsensical trade that sent Dan Wheeler, a quality setup man, to the Devil Rays in exchange for… Ty Wigginton, who couldn’t even keep a job with the Pirates. In essence, the Astros gave away a good reliever while also substantially downgrading their situation at third. %#$@ the heck?

So, what’s new for 2008? Well, you may have heard that Old Man Biggio hung it up (about two years too late). In his place, Ed Wade went out and got… Kaz Matsui. Luke Scott, who happened to be hitting the snot out of the ball last year, and Chris Burke are both gone. Burke is no great shakes, but you can’t honestly tell me he’d have been THAT much worse at second than Matsui. Anyway, Burke was part of a deal that brought Jose Valverde in from Arizona to replace closer Brad Lidge, who, along with infielder Eric Bruntlett, was sent to Philadelphia in exchange for centerfielder Michael Bourn, reliever Geoff Geary and J. Random Double A Pitcher, who is known as Mike Costanzo off the diamond. Apparently Houston packaged a bunch of other players along with Scott in exchange for some “Tejada” guy to put at shortstop. Seems he used to be pretty good, but he’s lost a lot of his range. Oh, and rumor has it he’s also a pincushion. To make room for Miggy, the Astros turned Everett loose, and he fled to Minnesota. Brad Ausmus is finally done as an everyday player, as J.R. Towles is now behind the dish for the Astros. Ausmus will stick around to mentor Towles, and he will be called on if the youngster struggles (please, no, anything but that). Jennings has been shipped to the Rangers, which will allow Wandy Rodriguez to move up to #2 in the rotation. Overall there’s been a decent number of changes this offseason for Houston; unfortunately, most of them are going to produce average results at best.

Let’s have a look at the guys who are projected to take the field on opening day, shall we?

CF Michael Bourn — Bourn will bring some speed to center, and will likely lead off at the plate. His .348 OBP last season, albeit in limited action, is not too shabby and should give the rest of the lineup something to work with. At the very least, he’ll be better than Biggio and his .285 (ouch!) OBP from ‘07. He’s fairly young, so there’s still a handful of unknowns surrounding him.
2B Kaz Matsui — When will the Astros learn to stop going after Rockies players who have fluky performance spikes due to Coors Field? .288/.342/.405 isn’t all that spectacular anywhere else, but .288/.342/.405 at Coors Field just screams “mediocre baseball player”. I suppose anything beats Biggio’s .251/.285/.381, but at least Craig had a big name to play on — what excuse is this guy going to have when people realize he sucks? “But I’m Kaz Matsui! I played in the World Series!”? Get real.
SS Miguel Tejada — Most of Tejada’s defensive range is gone, and at age 31 it ain’t coming back no matter what kind of junk he’s injecting himself with. He also dropped off significantly at the plate last year, and as a result his WARP1, which had hovered in the 6-10 range for seven years, fell to 2.8. Ouch. Not a good sign.
1B Lance Berkman — Big Puma was up and down in ‘07, and his .278 average was the lowest of his career since he became an everyday player. When he made contact, though, he was still lethal, as evidenced by his .510 SLG. If anyone can rebound from an erratic campaign, it’s this guy.
LF Carlos Lee — Last year there was a lot of hoopla from Justin about Lee being a notorious GIDP machine, but I don’t think even he was prepared for El Caballo to go out and do it at nearly double his usual rate (one every 23.2 AB last season versus one every 41.9 AB for the rest of his career). Oh, defensively? Well, let’s just say he’s still not exactly 1993 Barry Bonds out there in left. You still have to respect his power, but his game obviously has flaws.
RF Hunter Pence — I can safely say that Pence is the real deal. The kid can play baseball, no question about it. His strikeout rate is somewhat high (one every 4.8 AB), so he’s got to work on his plate discipline and not let pitchers fool him into swinging at junk. The problem is he always wants to make something happen, so this may not be fixable, but he’s definitely a special talent.
3B Ty Wigginton — It still makes no sense to me that Wigginton has this job instead of Ensberg. Wigginton’s a career .268/.327/.449 hitter who’s never had a single-season WARP1 higher than 3.8. Even in Ensberg’s funk-marred 2006 season, he finished with a WARP1 of 4.8. Expect mediocrity from the number seven slot in the lineup here.
C J.R. Towles — Finally, The Zombie has relinquished his hold on the dish. It would be foolish to make predictions about a guy who has 44 major-league plate appearances under his belt, but I don’t think there’s any possible way he can outstink his mentor at the plate: Since coming to Houston in 2001, Ausmus averages a GIDP every 25.8 AB, and his offensive high marks are .258, .351 and .353 (he’s also never had more than 509 PA as an Astro — if he did, these numbers would likely be even worse). Oh yeah, and Ausmus hasn’t had a WARP1 higher than 4.1 since putting on an Astros uniform. The bar’s not exactly set sky-high for you, J.R.

Overall, I like the addition of Bourn offensively. He looks to be a little bit of a slapper like Taveras was, but I think that’s OK as long as it gets him on base. Matsui’s a very unremarkable replacement at second for the dearly departed Biggio, and Tejada looks primed to be a disappointment at shortstop. It’s a shame that such talented 4-5-6 hitters are surrounded by such garbage at 2 and 7, and possibly 3 as well.

Pitching, you say? OK, you masochist. Here’s the Astros’ projected rotation for 2008:

SP Roy Oswalt — The Wizard took a ridiculous discount to stay with Houston, and it’s anybody’s guess as to why the hell he did it. Any yutz with two brain cells to rub together can watch him pitch and understand he’s worth a lot more than 5/73. There are no sure things in the MLB, but as long as Oswalt’s arm remains in one piece, he’ll end up near the top of the NL in all the important categories.
SP Wandy Rodriguez — Wandy’s #2! This is a proud day for me. You may recall I had some words of praise for his outstanding home performances last season, and I hope to see this trend continue. However, he also has to avoid any Jennings-like meltdowns, especially on the road, and because he’s not a power pitcher by any stretch, he’s really susceptible to getting rocked if he’s not hitting his marks on a particular night. I don’t expect him to blow the doors off anyone, but I do think he’ll be a decent #2, at least in Houston.
SP Brandon Backe — Hopefully Backe can spend more time on the roster than on the DL this season, because his stuff isn’t bad when he’s healthy. Unfortunately he seems to be quite frail, which is a bad sign for a guy who’s only 29. He did look good after his aggressive rehabbing, posting a 3.77 ERA in his five starts. If he holds up, he’s a solid #3.
SP Woody Williams — The Astros seem to love guys whose numbers are inflated by their former teams’ home parks. We need a catchy name for this. I’m leaning toward Kaz Syndrome. No, but seriously folks, Williams — like all pitchers who take the mound at Petco — received a substantial boost to his stats in 2006, which apparently was enough to make Tim Purpura decide that he really needed to pay 2/12 to add a 40-year-old fly baller to his rotation. Now 41, Williams usually gets lit up night after night thanks to the short porch in left at Minute Maid. Ugh. No more, please.
SP Chris Sampson — Another guy who relies more on finesse than on simply overpowering batters, Sampson had a bit of a rough season. He typically excels at inducing ground balls, but on nights where he can’t keep the ball down, opposing batters can just tee off on him at will. He is better than his 7-8 record would have you believe, as he was robbed of at least three wins due to inept batting and/or failure by the bullpen to maintain the lead he left them with. I like him, but as with most finesse pitchers he’s almost always a liability.

If you can keep up with all the middling relievers in Houston’s bullpen, you’re far more observant than I am. In addition to Wheeler, groundball machine Chad Qualls is also gone — he was part of the Valverde deal — so both of the Astros’ excellent setup guys from the last few years are history. Geoff Geary seems to be the primary candidate for the role, while Valverde will close.

Bottom line: I don’t think the Astros are quite ready to compete with the Pirates for the NL Central basement just yet, but with three finesse pitchers in the rotation (and fragile ones at that) we’re likely to see some call-ups as the season wears on. The talent in the middle of Houston’s lineup will get a bit more help than they did last season, but it’s not going to be enough. They’ll be able to outsuck the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers, but they’re not Pirate material just yet. It’ll be entertaining to see them duke it out with Cincinnati for 5th place, though. 71-91.

Bryan Alsworth is a writer for SportingGurus.com. He can be reached here.