(The following is the text of an email I sent Adam Adkins when he asked my reaction of the Santana trade. As such, it’s rough around the edges, but it’s a fine synopsis of what I think.)

This is one of the worst trades I’ve ever seen, for the Twins. How do you trade Johan freakin’ Santana and not walk away with at least one serious, blue-chip prospect? The Twins got one toolsy guy who’s yet to perform in the minors (Gomez), one young “projection” pitcher who’s also yet to show anything, and two middling pitchers.

Klapisch reported that just before the trade happened, Bill Smith called Brian Cashman, quote, “in a panic” and told him Hughes was no longer necessary, the Yankees could have Santana for Kennedy, Cabrera and “a prospect” (presumably not Jackson or Tabata; maybe Horne). Cashman told him no, the Yankees are no longer interested. Smith then called the Red Sox and was told the same thing; the Red Sox were no longer interested in Santana.

There’s no indication anywhere that Smith was even talking to either of the L.A. teams.

My conclusions, and some of this is just conjecture, are:

1. Santana, who has a full no-trade, told the Twins some time ago he will accept a trade only to New York or Boston.
2. Bill Smith held out for better offers, even when Phil Hughes was on the table, and when it seemed like a deal with the Yankees or Red Sox was about to happen, it fell apart. (See #4, below.)
3. Sometime in the past week, Santana’s agent contacted the Twins and informed them that, if Santana hasn’t been traded by January 31st, he will refuse to waive his no-trade clause for any reason until the end of the season/end of the contract, and he will under no circumstances whatsoever re-sign with the Twins during or after the season. (This probably is what prompted the Twins to pull the trigger on extensions for Morneau and Cuddyer last week.)
4. Neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox were ever really serious about acquiring Santana; they each only wanted to make sure the other didn’t get him, or paid too much if they did. (Both the Yankees AND the Red Sox had a trade basically agreed to in December, and both yanked it at the last minute. It was actually reported in the major media during the winter meetings, you’ll recall, that Santana had been traded to the Red Sox, only to see the Red Sox back out.)
5. That meant that Smith had no choice; he HAD to trade Santana to the Mets for whatever he could get, and he had to do it right now. So he did the best he could, with zero leverage.

The bottom line is that, whoever dictated that Santana had to be traded — Pohlad or Smith, presumably — made a mistake. The Twins would have been better off keeping him than trading him for this middling pupu platter of young guys, because:

1. They had a small but nonzero chance of competing in 2008 with him; without him, their chances are zero;
2. That means ticket sales are going to take a nose dive when they fall out of contention in about July or August;
3. The two first-round picks are not much less valuable than the dreck they got from the Mets;
4. You never know; they could convince Santana somehow to re-sign with them.