It’s all over for the Cubs. (Or, as my old Cubsfan friend Sam Sanderlin always referred to them, the Scrubs.)

How did Nate Silver end up so horribly, horribly wrong? (I’m sure he’ll toss and turn all night, all broken up inside over his awful failure, and then tender his resignation to Joe Sheehan in the morning and go join an order of monks somewhere in the mountains of Mongolia.) Silver’s analysis was basically that the Diamondbacks may have an edge in the bullpen, but the rotations are similar and the Cubs’ lineup was far better than Arizona’s, so the Cubs should be favored.

Was it an accurate analysis? In the bits and pieces, no doubt it was. The Cubs’ lineup was a lot better than the Diamondbacks’. But you know, that’s been true about the Diamondbacks all season: It’s hard to adequately explain why they’re here. They sport a strong bullpen backing up a pretty good rotation, but the lineup has really been sandbagged all season long, and they were outscored, and by quite a bit, on the season. Their run differential was worse than that of last year’s improbable world champion Cardinals.

The Diamondbacks swept the Cubs pretty much the same way they compiled their 90-72 record: They pitched well, they played extremely good defense, and the lineup scored enough. It’s only three games, but the microcosmic nature of the series serves as further evidence that the Diamondbacks didn’t get to this dance by lucking into a ticket, but rather that winning close games is something they’re able to do consistently. And that’s gold in the playoffs.

General sentiment seems to be that the Rockies should be favorites in the NLCS; after all, they’re riding the mother of all hot streaks. (They need to beat the Phillies tonight to solidify that status.) Not only that, but the Rockies have succeeded precisely oppositely of the Diamondbacks’ method: Though it took a scorching hot streak and a playoff game to race into the playoffs as a wild card, the Rockies had the best run differential in the National League.

But I’m more than willing to lay my money on the Diamondbacks, because if there’s anything to the notion that pitching and defense and winning close games leads to postseason to success, the Diamondbacks are those virtues personified. If you’re inclined to believe the run differentials–and believe me, usually, I am–the Rockies are the better team. But the Diamondbacks have something going that makes them especially difficult to defeat several times over, and if (particularly) their very strong defense is by design, that’s a feather in Josh Byrnes‘ cap, which is quickly growing crowded with them.

Put in short: The Diamondbacks have the right horses in the right places to beat the Rockies at their own game, on their own field even, and for that reason the Diamondbacks should be the favorites to win the National League championship.