Bryan posted his overview of the NFL last week, and now on the eve of the real opening day, here’s mine. This isn’t going to be comprehensive; I’m just giving you my predictions and a sentence or two to justify them.

AFC EAST

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 11-5 (#2 SEED)

That may seem a little low, but there are two things in play here: First, the Patriots defense showed signs of slipping last year. Adalius Thomas is a big addition to be sure, but I’m not convinced he’s going to offset the aging and increasing injury rates of the rest of the defense. And second, the rest of the division still isn’t any good, and you can probably expect the Patriots to shut operations down around week 16 and coast in, division title already in hand.

2. MIAMI DOLPHINS 8-8

There isn’t much reason for optimism around Miami, but I think Cam Cameron is going to be an upgrade over Nick Saban, whose heart was clearly never in coaching in the NFL. If the defense takes a small step back instead of a big one, it might make up for a poor offense. This is a reach, but since I don’t like the Jets or Bills, it’s where I’m going to put my money.

3. NEW YORK JETS 7-9

The Jets weren’t as good as they looked last year, and they can reasonably improve while still posting this kind of won-lost record. Pennington isn’t going to last the season this time, I’m not sold on Kellen Clemens, and the defense is still in need of help. I do think they got their man in Doogie Mangini, though.

4. BUFFALO BILLS 6-10

The Bills won’t be climbing out of the hole as long as J.P. Losman is the man holding the rope. That’s pretty much the end of story here.

AFC SOUTH

1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 13-3 (#1 SEED)

For as long as Peyton Manning stays near the top of his game, it’s going to be virtually impossible for the Colts to win any fewer than 10-11 games. The rest of the offense is still good enough to carry them to 13 wins no matter how bad the defense is. Football Outsiders’ DVOA is predicting a significant downturn for the Colts this year because of how bad the defense was last year (and is projected to be this year), but this is a case where the stats just can’t account for how indestructible the quarterback is.

2. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 11-5 (WILD CARD)

Even after the absurd stupidity of dumping Byron Leftwich, even without a competent quarterback, the Jaguars are still going 11-5 because their defense is just that devastating. This is pretty much this year’s version of the 2005 Bears.

3. HOUSTON TEXANS 6-10

I think 6-10 would equal the best record they’ve ever posted. Matt Schaub is going to flop, but it’s not like he’s going to be able to produce much worse than David Carr did, and the defense gives no reason for optimism. Another year, another top ten draft pick for the Moo Cows.

4. TENNESSEE FLAMING THUMBTACKS 5-11

I am really not feeling it from the Thumbtacks. Once again we have a bad defense, and there’s a bad offense to compliment it. Remember the 10-game rule: It takes about ten games for defensive coordinators to build an adequate portfolio of film on a new quarterback. Vince Young is right at that threshold, and even if the Madden Curse doesn’t fell him (which it probably will), he’s going to struggle and it’s not like his teammates are going to bail him out. I’m bullish about Young’s long-term prospects, but it’s going to be ugly this year.

AFC NORTH

1. CINCINNATI BENGALS 11-5 (#3 SEED)

They earn the #1 spot by default. The Bengals are pretty good–again I emphasize that they were about as bad last year as it’s possible to be with a franchise quarterback at the controls, by which I mean the 7-8 win range. They won’t be that bad this year, their schedule is easy, and read on to understand why they just aren’t going to have competition for the division title this year.

2. BALTIMORE RAVENS 9-7 (WILD CARD)

Steve McNair simply isn’t going to last another full season, and an extended engagement from the Kyle Boller Project is going to sink them. The defense is a year older and down one very good player (Adalius Thomas), the receiving corps is still iffy, the o-line is likewise a year older, and Willis McGahee isn’t as big an upgrade at running back as you think. The defense and McNair’s first few weeks of health will be enough to carry them past .500, but that’s as far as they go.

3. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 7-9

For a guy who’s chronically pessimistic about all things Steelers, I actually like their prospects for this year, and I’m pretty certain they’re going to be better this year than they were last year, especially on defense. Why the poor projection, then? Two things: First, I vehemently do not believe 2005 Ben Roethlisberger is ever coming back, and I therefore expect Roethlisberger to be at or near the league lead in interceptions again. Second–and this somewhat has to do with that first thing I just mentioned, too–after an easy first five weeks featuring the Browns and most of the NFC West, the Steelers’ schedule turns brutal. If they aren’t 5-1 heading into that post-bye-week stretch–and they won’t be–the wheels are going to come off for them, and don’t be surprised when Roethlisberger’s future with the team is in doubt after the season.

4. CLEVELAND BROWNS 5-11

I really want to believe in the Browns. They’re headed the right direction, with a phenomenal haul from the draft (Joe Thomas and Brady Quinn). With their franchise QB in hand, good things are going to be happening in Cleveland, but to be honest, I’ve slowly become more and more convinced Romeo Crennel just isn’t hacking it as a head coach. This is the year to prove me wrong, but I think this is the year he gets canned after another season of no improvement.

AFC WEST

1. DENVER BRONCOS 11-5 (#4 SEED)

Simply put, the Broncos have a solid, deep team, if not spectacularly talented, and the rest of this division is going to be subpar. If Shanahan could hide Jake Plummer’s weaknesses the past few years, he should be able to cope with having Jay Cutler holding the car keys.

2. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 9-7

I only have them with this good a record because the Chargers are ridiculously talented, the most loaded team in football top-to-bottom if we assume the Steelers are helmed by 2006 Ben Roethlisberger and not the 2005 edition. But Norv Turner is really, really awful, one of the worst head coaches in history, and he’s going to drag them down way further than they should be dragged.

3. OAKLAND RAIDERS 6-10

The offense can’t help but improve, especially since Akili Smith JaMarcus Russell won’t play until at least midseason, and the defense is really very good. You’ll hear more about the Raiders defense this year.

4. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 5-11

I feel sort of jittery projecting them this low, since it’s an Uncle Herm hallmark to field mediocre, rather than terrible, teams, but with Larry Johnson’s career now ruined thanks to his overuse last year and the crumbling of the game’s best o-line, the Chiefs are just one of the least talented teams in the sport. The horses just aren’t there for anything better than, if everything goes perfectly, 7-8 wins.

NFC EAST

1. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 13-3 (#1 SEED)

This is probably the last year of their window, as Donnie Football, Brian Westbrook and several defensive stalwarts continue accumulating mileage and medical report entries. I think the Eagles are going to shoot right out of the gate and clearly establish themselves as head-and-shoulders above the still-morbid NFC. And yes, I’m taking the gamble of assuming at least most of healthy season from Donnie Football.

2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS 10-6 (WILD CARD)

The Redskins have star power atop their depth chart and pretty much nothing backing it up. Last year they had a lot of injuries and a rookie quarterback; this year they’ll probably be healthier and have a very good second-year quarterback. Jason Campbell is going to be good, and sooner than you think.

3. NEW YORK GIANTS 7-9

For the Giants to actually reach the playoffs would be just about unthinkable, but they’re not a bad team and they’re not going to implode to 4-12 or anything, not in the NFC. They’re nondescript, have been during the entire Eli Manning era, and I doubt that’s going to stop now.

4. DALLAS COWBOYS 6-10

I do not have faith in Wade Phillips at all. I like Tony Romo, but the rest of this team is riddled with negative indicators: The defense sucked badly the second half of last year, the Cowboys were ridiculously healthy last year and won’t be this year, and Romo doesn’t have much talent surround him, especially with Terry Glenn set to miss somewhere between 4 weeks and the entire season.

Whoops, I’m out of time, so I’m just going to post the records and try to put up blurbs tomorrow morning…

NFC SOUTH

1. Altanta Falcons 11-5 (#3 Seed)
2. New Orleans Saints 9-7 (Wild Card)
3. Carolina Panthers 8-8
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers 12-4 (#2 Seed)
2. Detroit Lions 7-9
3. Chicago Bears 6-10
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-11

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks 10-6 (#4 seed)
2. Arizona Cardinals 7-9
3. San Francisco 49ers 6-10
4. St. Louis Rams 5-11

WILD CARD PLAYOFFS

Ravens 20, Bengals 17
Broncos 19, Jaguars 17
Falcons 24, Saints 20
Redskins 27, Seahawks 10

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

Colts 16, Ravens 9
Patriots 29, Broncos 13
Eagles 17, Redskins 16
Falcons 22, Packers 20

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Colts 33, Patriots 24

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Eagles 24, Falcons 10

SUPER BOWL 42

Eagles 35, Colts 31

And your 2007 World Champion: The Philadelphia Eagles. Dig it!