The Gurus’ NFL Picks: Week 1
Welcome to the inaugural round of SportingGurus.com’s weekly NFL picks! This year our returning football experts, Bryan Alsworth and Justin Zeth, will continue going head-to-head picking games against the spread, and they’ll be joined by SG’s new football analyst, The Dragon, who you’ll see periodically posting player profiles and weekly wrap-ups.
Honest, we swear: The Saints/Colts picks were written up and done before the game was played.
Saints (+6) at Colts
Bryan Alsworth: Kicking off the season, we have what will likely be one of the highest-scoring games all year. Indianapolis is just a machine at home, and Princess Peyton will absolutely feast on the jokesters New Orleans is trying to pass off as a secondary. Colts.
The Dragon: Dude, the Saints defense blows hard. Peyton Manning’s going to slice the Colts’ defense like O.J. Simpson sl… OK, that joke is too tasteless even for me. 63-0, Colts.
Justin Zeth: The Colts defense is actually pretty well set up to deal with the Saints offense–they have the speed guys to contain Bush and Colston, and the Saints aren’t going to cram Deuce McAllister down their throats–and the Saints defense is going to be awful this year. I expect a Colts blowout.
Chiefs (+3) at Texans
BA: You keep your 3 points. You’ll need them after Larry Johnson is carted off with a shredded knee. Texans.
TD: @#%() the heck are the Texans favorites? The Texans!? I know Herm sucks–believe me, I know–but these are the Texans we’re talking about. Any time you lay me down points against the Texans, you bet your ass I’m taking them. Chiefs.
JZ: Look, I’m really, really down on the Chiefs this year, but if there’s one thing an Uncle Herm team is good at, it’s dominating weak opponents. I’m taking the Texans, and you can keep your points.
Broncos (-3) at Bills
BA: If ever there was a game where I can pretty much guarantee that J.P. Losman is going to look absolutely terrible, this is it. Broncos.
TD: Losman! Cutler! It’s the NFL on NBC!!! The Broncos don’t have much of a pass rush, but then, the Bills don’t have much of an o-line, and Champ will be rendering Lee Evans null and void. And then who’s Loser Losman going to throw to? Right. Champ. Broncos.
JZ: I like the Bills here. No especially compelling reason why. I’m taking my gut and going against my head here.
Steelers (-5.5) at Brownies
BA: I don’t like the Clowns with Charlie Frye at the controls, but I also don’t like the Stillers since no one knows what kind of form Big Ben will be in this year. I’ll take my chances though. Steelers.
TD: The Steelers are going to suck harder than anyone’s sucked since Bill Clinton… OK, that’s a lie. The Lions are still around. But this is one of those games where notice gets served: The Steelers aren’t as good as you thought. The Browns aren’t as bad as you thought. And the points? Icing on a very sweet cake. Browns.
JZ: If there’s one thing you can always count on from the Steelers, it’s taking care of the Browns. I don’t expect that to change under Mike Tomlin. It’s not so much that I expect Roethlisberger to light the world on fire, but the Browns offense is going to have serious issues against the Steelers’ pressure-packed front seven. I don’t think the Browns can win this game, so I’m not taking the points. Steelers.
Flaming Thumbtacks (+6.5) at Jaguars
BA: Vince Young… David Garrard… Vince Young… David Garrard… VINCE YOUNG… DAVID GARRARD. Flaming Thumbtacks.
TD: Jaguars 6, Flaming Thumbtacks 0, on an overtime fumble return taken to the house. I guess that means I’m taking the Flaming Thumbtacks and the points.
JZ: The Jaguars defense is WAY too tough for Vince Young to handle by himself, and the Flaming Thumbtacks defense isn’t good enough to take advantage of David Garrard being David Garrard. Jaguars.
Panthers (+1.5) at Rams
BA: It’s early in the season, so the Rams are healthy. And when the Rams are healthy, teams like Carolina are in big, big trouble. Rams.
TD: Name all the Rams defensive starters. You don’t know any of them, do you? Neither do I. Neither does Jake Delhomme. You think Jake Delhomme cares? F**k it, he’s going deep. Panthers.
JZ: I don’t like this matchup at all for the Rams. The Panthers have the offensive talent to control the ball and keep Bulger from hurting them too bad. Panthers.
Eagles (-3) at Packers
BA: Several pro football authorities are high on the Pack this year. I’m inclined to agree, even though this is the freaking Eagles coming to town. I’ll take 3 points at Lambeau. Packers.
TD: You know what? @#$( it, I’m going deep. The Eagles rock, but I’m giddying up on the Packers at Lambeau.
JZ: I’m shocked the line is this close. Maybe the oddsmakers are wising up to Pro Football Prospectus, which has high projections for the Packers… but then, maybe they’re not, since the Eagles are projected to be the best freaking team in football. Eagles in a blowout.
Falcons (+3) at Viqueens
BA: This is Joe Harrington’s time to shine. He’s going right into very hostile territory, against a team with an average pass defense. I have more faith in him than I do in Tarvaris Jackson. Falcons.
TD: The Vikings are going to be one of the worst teams in football unless their defense steps up to a 2000 Ravens level of butt-kicking. My colleagues here at SG are swinging off of Joe Harrington’s… well, anyhow, even IF Harrington is good, the talent surrounding him isn’t, and this offense isn’t going to touch the purple guys’ defense. That said… I can’t conscientiously give the Viqueens three points. I wouldn’t be able to live with myself. Falcons.
JZ: Let the Falcons bandwagon get rolling! The Vikings defense is very good, so Joe Harrington may look only mediocre when in fact he did pretty well, but four INTs against Quincy Carter Tarvaris Jackson will carry the day. Falcons.
Dolphins (+3) at Redskins
BA: Hahaha! 3 points against Jason Campbell? For a team that decided it would rather have a concussion victim than a young, talented quarterback? The same team that decided Ted Ginn, of all people, was worthy of a first-round pick? Right now the guy’s a kick returner at best. I don’t want your points, pal. Redskins.
TD: I HATE lines like this. It’s not like the Redskins are really good enough to do much scoring against the Miami defense, but what, you think the Dolphins are going to pull away? “Oh my, Chris Chambers, please don’t leap six feet over my head so the ball can bounce off your hands! You’re frightening me!” When in doubt, I’m just taking the home team. Redskins.
JZ: The Redskins are a good football team. Honest, they are. The Dolphins are not. Maybe you came here for in-depth analysis, but in cases like these just go with common sense. Give me the home team. Redskins.
Patriots (-6.5) at Jets
BA: We should all know the deal here by now — Tom Brady’s gonna throw the ball about 12 (Genuflect.) times the entire day and spend the rest of the afternoon handing the ball to Laurence Maroney. Patriots.
TD: Six and a half? I’ll take the six and a half. The Patriots are no strangers to poor starts. I think they like just letting the rest of the league think maybe they’re done, then they go all “ha ha! Fool you!” around week 4. But maybe Doogie knows this. Either way, I’m at least looking for a close game. Jets.
JZ: Doogie’s crap just doesn’t work against Belichick, and I don’t see any reason why it ever would. Still… I’m not comfortable giving the Jets, who are a well-coached team, six and a half at home, not even against the Patriots. So I’m taking the Jets and the points.
Buccaneers (+6) at Seahawks
BA: Let me be clear here. The Seahawks are not a good team. However, the Seahawks are not a bad team either. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are very, very bad. Seahawks.
TD: Ha ha! If it was +16 then maybe I’d be tempted to put it down on the Buccaneers. Seahawks, 44-0.
JZ: Seattle is a brutally tough place to play, the Buccaneers are absolutely as far away from home as it’s possible to get while remaining in the continental United States, and the Seahawks are better. Six points just doesn’t do it for me here. Seahawks.
Bears (+6.5) at Chargers
BA: Let the Wrecks Grossman Circus commence! It’s a 17-week comedy of errors! No, but seriously, this defense is GOOD. I don’t know if it’s good enough to keep it within 6.5 given all the mistakes Wrecks will no doubt make, but I’m willing to gamble on them. Bears.
TD: Ha ha ha! The Chargers pass rush against our old boy Rex! I don’t care HOW good the Bears defense is, this is going to be comical. Chargers, 28 to -6.
JZ: You know, I kind of expect this to be a Good Rex game. Never forget that Norv Turner teams always come out listless, like they’re distracted by thinking about which girl to take to the hotel room with them next Friday. I think the Bears smack them in the mouth in San Diego. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Lions (+2) at Raiders
BA: I don’t even want to touch this line. These were the two worst teams in the league last year, and they’re both still pretty awful. This is gonna be a train wreck — one that I do NOT want to be a part of. Fine, I’ll pick somebody if you’ll just let me go home. Lions.
TD: Sweet Lord, I don’t want to touch this game with a ten foot pole. Let me think… Lions offense… good… Raiders defense… good… Raiders offense… bad… Lions defense… really, really, really bad. I’ll take the Raiders. Now get that gun out of my face, @#$hole.
JZ: Josh McCown’s revenge, baby!! You think he’s forgotten what Jon Kitna did to him? This has to be the first time we’ve seen a matchup of a QB against a guy who was catching passes from him last year, right? Let me check… no, Neil O’Donnell’s Jets didn’t play the Steelers in 1996. Ladies and gentlemen, the 2007 Oakland Raiders! That said… Oakland’s a tough place to play and the Lions suck. So I’m taking the Raiders.
Giants (+6) at Cowboys
BA: Eli, meet DeMarcus. Now meet Anthony. Now go learn to be a real quarterback, chump. Cowboys.
TD: You know what the Giants have in common with the Chiefs? Nothing. At least the Chiefs know their quarterback sucks. Cowboys.
JZ: I’m not crazy about this line, because I suspect it could be close… but I don’t see the Giants winning this thing. Tony Romo is going to use the Giants’ user-friendly defense to demonstrate that he means business. I’m taking the Cowboys.
Ravens (+3) at Bengals
BA: People are loading up on the Ravens as we speak, and for good reason — the Bungles lost two key o-linemen this offseason, and Baltimore will take full advantage of that. Ravens.
TD: You think a five yard out is gonna win you a game? Steve McNair does. Not Carson Palmer. This ain’t Brian Billick running HIS offense. The Bengals are gonna unleash the dragon all over the Ravens’ sissy defense.
JZ: I’m not as high on the Ravens defense as most–I have it pegged as good, not especially great–but this game’s going to prove important as these two teams struggle for the division title late in the year. Week 1 is the kind of atmosphere where a team can grab early momentum and really jam it down their opponents’ throats, and Baltimore is better suited to do that in this matchup. So I’m going to somewhat reluctantly take the Ravens.
Cardinals (+3) at 49ers
BA: Here’s one where I disagree with the people that are loading up. The 49ers seem to be the popular pick here, but here’s the thing. One big-money cornerback can’t cover all the weapons that Arizona has, and stacking the box will work fine against San Francisco’s offense because their passing game still leaves something to be desired. Cardinals.
TD: Dude, didn’t you read what I said about Alex Smith? The dude sucks. Even the Cardinals can handle them, and I for one am still not afraid of their weird fetish for losing to the 49ers. What the heck did the 49ers do to improve the team? Bring in Nate Clements? Wow. Congratulations. Frank Gore was on the team last year, too, you know. Cardinals.
JZ: The Cardinals just have this weird thing about losing to the 49ers. I’m not going against that trend until I’m proven otherwise. 49ers.
We’ve got to go finish getting JACKED UP now. Enjoy the season, everyone!
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