So Carlos Zambrano’s got himself a new contract. Five years, $91.5 million, as it’s being reported. It’s not sufficient anymore to just say so-and-so has a team option or so-and-so has a player option. All the rage was “vesting options,” but even that is just so 2005. I don’t know what to call the current fad in end-of-contract options. For now we’ll call them Convoluted options.

Carlos’ Convoluted option isn’t the worst I’ve seen, really. Here’s how it works: He gets $18.3 million per year for five years, starting next year. That takes him through 2012. Then, if one of the following things happens:

  • Zambrano wins or just misses the 2011 Cy Young Award, OR
  • Zambrano finishes in the top four in 2012 Cy Young balloting,

Then he gets 2013 guaranteed at the great new price of $19.25 million.

Now, to tie your option to Cy Young Award balloting–that is, to make it depend upon the same people who gave us Bartolo Colon, 2005 Cy Young Award Winner–is interesting. Most of the time, you’d have your option depend upon some performance benchmark; in Zambrano’s case, say, 200 innings and 190 strikeouts might be appropriate, or 200 innings and an ERA under 3.50. Making your money depend on Cy Young balloting is basically the same thing as making it depend upon your win total. Essentially Zambrano will get his option if he wins 20 in 2011, or wins 17 or so in 2012.

To recap, Zambrano’s option depends on the following four things, in order of importance:

  1. The quality of the 2011-2012 Cubs team around him
  2. Luck (Primarily the distribution of run support)
  3. Health
  4. His actual performance

That’s not a bad option at all for the Cubs. He’ll only get it if the Cubs are good in 2011-2012, and if they’re good, there’s no doubt they can afford the $19.25 million; and if Zambrano’s healthy and good enough to get to or near 20 wins, by then $19.25 million is probably going to be a bargain price, or at very worst a fair price, for a 33-year-old ace pitcher.

For Zambrano, it’s harder to imagine what he’s after. If he were 32, healthy and coming off a Cy Young caliber season in his recent past, it would be oodles better for him to hit free agency and get himself a nice shiny new five or six year contract. Instead, he’s saying that if he’s healthy and good and the Cubs are healthy and good, he’s sticking around another year. That makes me believe him when he says:

“Not everything is about money, you know. I know if I got to free agency there were a lot of things that would come to me and offer me. I feel comfortable here. I feel good here and my family feels good here.”

The structure of his contract would suggest Zambrano really likes being a Cub and expects that, if the Cubs are successful by the end of the contract, he really won’t be interested in negotiating with any other team; he’ll just take that $19.25 million and buy himself a year’s time to negotiate a new extension with Chicago.

Oh, and he gets a full no-trade clause, too, but you already knew that, right? The no-trade clause is quickly becoming standard for star players. I don’t understand why he would need one, since in another three years he goes 10-and-5, but hey, whatever puts the cherry on his sundae.
So, what are the ramifications of this contract? Let’s go down a little laundry list here…

Carlos Zambrano is now, and just about always has been, a better pitcher than Barry Zito. And he’s younger than Barry Zito. By three years. So why did he not even approach Zito’s insane 8/126 contract? There are four possible factors: First, that last year’s market was somewhat anomalous; Second, that Zambrano really likes Chicago and left some money on the table; Third, that Brian Sabean was simply stupid and outbid everyone else by $30 million or more; Fourth, (and forgive me for saying this, but enough people bring this stuff up that it has to at least be mentioned) that Zito is white and Zambrano is not. I think Option Three is our winner–that Sabean just isn’t the sharpest dart on the board–with a dash of Option Two. I don’t believe the market has changed, and I don’t believe racism has anything to do with it. Remember: Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by stupidity.

The Astros are making out like freaking bandits on Roy Oswalt’s contract. Oswalt’s getting 5/75, $15 million per season, with a club option for $14 million for 2012. He just signed that extension a year ago. Whoever is agent was, I sure hope Roy’s fired him. If Roy killed his agent and I was on the jury, I think I’d convict him, but it might take me awhile to convince myself.

What does this mean for the 1200 pound marlin out there in the waters, one Johan Santana? Well, it sort of sets the market. Carlos Zambrano is getting $18 million per season, for five seasons, with a vesting $19.25 million option. He is now the fifth- or sixth- highest-paid player in baseball. And he probably left some money on the table; at the very least, he left a year or two on the table, if not any additional per-season value. I think that pretty clearly sets the bar on Santana: It’s going to take at least $20 million per season to sign him, and probably more like $22-23 million per season. And it’s going to take at least seven years, more likely eight. Translation? It says here that Santana’s contract with the Yankees after the 2008 season is something close to this: Eight years, $185 million with some kind of vesting option for the ninth year or a $6 million buyout, and a full no-trade clause.